Research & insights
Notes from the desk.
Working analyses on aviation demand, aircraft economics, and market cycles. Method-forward, and open about assumptions.
Forecasting U.S. domestic flight volumes
Comparing SARIMAX and ETS on monthly departures — what the seasonality tells you, and where each model earns its keep.
Read note →Reading an airline through its cost stack
Turning a carrier's fixed and variable costs into a unit-economics view a lender can use.
ForthcomingWhat a DCF really says about an aircraft
A walk-through of enterprise valuation for an operator, and where the sensitivity actually lives.
Forthcoming