Aviation market research · Economic analysis
Independent research for a capital-intensive industry.
Sobo Aviation Research applies the tools of economics — demand forecasting, financial analysis, and market study — to aircraft, operators, and the markets they fly.
The firm
A research desk for aviation economics.
Aviation runs on long-dated, capital-heavy decisions — which aircraft, which routes, which markets, at what point in the cycle. Those decisions deserve evidence, not intuition. Sobo Aviation Research is a single-principal firm built to supply that evidence: rigorous, independent, and legible to the people who have to act on it.
The work sits deliberately in the research-and-analysis lane — demand studies, forecasts, unit economics, and financial models — rather than regulated advisory. The aim is simple: give operators, lessors, financiers, and advisors a clearer read on the numbers before they commit capital.
Capabilities
Four ways the firm reads a market.
Market Research
Sizing routes, fleets, and segments. Competitive landscape and demand studies that frame where an aviation market actually is — and where it is heading.
Demand Forecasting
Time-series and econometric forecasting of traffic, flight volumes, and utilization — SARIMAX and exponential-smoothing methods with honest diagnostics, not black boxes.
Economic Analysis
Cost structures, unit economics, and feasibility studies grounded in applied microeconomics — the drivers behind a route, an asset, or a business case.
Financial Analysis
Discounted-cash-flow and cash-flow modeling, capital-structure and return analysis for aircraft and operators — built to be inspected, stressed, and trusted.
Research & insights
Notes from the desk.
Working analyses on aviation demand, aircraft economics, and market cycles. Method-forward and open about assumptions.
Forecasting U.S. domestic flight volumes
Comparing SARIMAX and ETS on monthly departures — what the seasonality tells you, and where each model earns its keep.
Read note →Reading an airline through its cost stack
Turning a carrier's fixed and variable costs into a unit-economics view a lender can use.
ForthcomingWhat a DCF really says about an aircraft
A walk-through of enterprise valuation for an operator, and where the sensitivity actually lives.
Forthcoming